Does your store replenishment and restocking plan take into account changing shopper behaviour? The increased cost of living is hitting home for shoppers. In September shoppers began to modify their selection of branded products in all areas.
In order to track shopper behaviour, we have monitored a select basket of groceries commonly bought in convenience stores. Since May 2022 we have observed whether shoppers have modified their shopping over time to counter the effects of higher household bills. The list of items below is included in our basket. We looked at the best-selling product for each item in the basket and monitored sales to see if shoppers stayed with their regular product or switched to a lower priced or own label product over the last few months.
Shopper Behaviour - Basket Contents
| Sliced Loaf | Lager 4 pack | Milk |
| Baked Beans | Bitter 4 pack | Eggs |
| Bacon | Energy Drink | Cigarettes |
| Toilet Tissue | Coffee | Dog Food |
| Bottled Cola | Tea | Cat Food |
| Hand Rolling Tobacco | Dishwasher Tablets | Washing Up Liquid |
| Tomato Ketchup | Breakfast Cereals | Instant Noodles |
By September (see tables below) we can see that some of the products in our list have been switched to unbranded or own label products, the overall basket cost has fallen by £4.75 driven by switching to cheaper options.
In September 2022, shoppers switched to the cheaper alternatives for the following products:
- Baked Beans – Euro Shopper instead of Heinz
- Tomato Ketchup – Euro Shopper instead of Heinz
- Breakfast Cereal – Cornflakes instead of Crunchy Nut Cornflakes
- Cat Food – Happy Shopper instead of Felix
- Washing Up Liquid – Euro Shopper instead of Fairy
We also monitored prices and spotted price increases on price marked packs (PMP):
- Euro Shopper Coffee Granules £1.00 to £1.25
- Pot Noodle £1.19 to £1.25
- Winalot Dog Food 95p to £1.15
Shoppers are also making cost driven choices over the type of product they purchase – Roll Your Own tobacco has increased from 26% of tobacco spend to 27%. Our theoretical basket spend has reduced but the average transaction value is, for most stores, still between £5 and £10, with 49.1% of stores achieving an average transaction value of between £7.51-£10. The overall picture is still positive for convenience – 2022 sales for September are ahead of last year and significantly higher than before the pandemic.
Shopper Behaviour - Cost of Living Basket May
2022
| Weekly Basket | This Month | ASP | Price per 100g/100ml |
| Sliced Loaf | Hovis Soft White Medium 800g | 1.26 | 0.16 |
| Baked Beans | Heinz Baked Beans 415g PM109 | 1.09 | 0.26 |
| Bacon | Euro Shopper Unsmoked Rindless Bacon 150g PM100 | 1 | 0.67 |
| Milk | Wiseman Semi Skimmed 2000ml | 1.48 | 0.07 |
| Toilet Tissue | Euro Shopper White 4s PM89 | 0.89 | n/a |
| Bottled Cola | Coca-Cola Original Taste 1.75L PM229 | 2.29 | 0.13 |
| Lager 4 pack | Stella Artois 4 x 568ml PM685 | 6.55 | 0.29 |
| Bitter 4 pack | John Smiths Extra Smooth 4 x 440ml PM495 | 4.95 | 0.28 |
| Energy Drink | Red Bull 250ml PM135 | 1.3 | 0.52 |
| Eggs | Euro Shopper Mixed Eggs PM100 | 1 | n/a |
| Coffee | Euro Shopper Instant Coffee Granules 90g PM100 | 1 | 1.11 |
| Tea | Yorkshire Tea 80s | 2.97 | n/a |
| Instant Noodles | Pot Noodle Chicken & Mushroom 90g PM119 | 1.17 | 1.3 |
| Tomato Ketchup | Heinz Tomato Ketchup 460g PM229 | 2.29 | 0.5 |
| Dishwasher Tablets | Finish All In One 13s PM299 | 2.98 | n/a |
| Washing Up Liquid | Fairy Original 433ml PM129 | 1.24 | 0.29 |
| Breakfast Cereal | Kelloggs Crunchy Nut Cornflakes 500g PM329 | 3.21 | 0.64 |
| Dog Food | Winalot Chicken in Jelly 400g PM95 | 0.95 | 0.24 |
| Cat Food | Felix Chicken Pouch 100g 3/£1.19 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Cigarettes | Benson & Hedges Blue King Size 20s | 10.75 | n/a |
| Hand Rolling Tobacco | Amber Leaf Original inc Papers 30g | 18.04 | n/a |
Shopper Behaviour - Cost of Living Basket September 2022
| Weekly Basket | This Month | ASP | Price per 100g/100ml |
| Sliced Loaf | Hovis Soft White Medium 800g | 1.32 | 0.17 |
| Baked Beans | Euro Shopper Baked Beans 410g PM40 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Bacon | Euro Shopper Unsmoked Rindless Bacon 150g PM100 | 1 | 0.67 |
| Milk | Wiseman Semi Skimmed 2000ml | 1.8 | 0.09 |
| Toilet Tissue | Euro Shopper White 4s | 1.19 | |
| Bottled Cola | Coca-Cola Original Taste 1.75L PM229 | 2.29 | 0.13 |
| Lager 4 pack | Stella Artois 4 x 568ml PM685 | 6.61 | 0.29 |
| Bitter 4 pack | John Smiths Extra Smooth 4 x 440ml | 4.93 | 0.28 |
| Energy Drink | Red Bull 250ml PM135 | 1.34 | 0.54 |
| Eggs | Euro Shopper Mixed Eggs PM100 | 1 | |
| Coffee | Euro Shopper Instant Coffee Granules 90g PM125 | 1.25 | 1.39 |
| Tea | PG Tips Pyramid Bags 40s PM135 | 1.35 | |
| Instant Noodles | Pot Noodle Chicken & Mushroom 90g PM125 | 1.17 | 1.3 |
| Tomato Ketchup | Euro Shopper Tomato Ketchup 470g PM69 | 0.69 | 0.15 |
| Dishwasher Tablets | Finish All In One 13s PM299 | 2.92 | |
| Washing Up Liquid | Euro Shopper Original 500ml PM70 | 0.7 | 0.14 |
| Breakfast Cereal | Kelloggs Cornflakes 500g PM299 | 2.48 | 0.5 |
| Dog Food | Winalot Chicken in Jelly 400g PM115 | 1.15 | 0.29 |
| Cat Food | Happy Shopper Chicken in Jelly 100g 4 for £1.19 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Cigarettes | Lambert & Butler Real Blue King Size 20s | 10.61 | |
| Hand Rolling Tobacco | Amber Leaf Original inc Papers 30g | 18.06 |
